Primary Care Demand and Capacity

Introduction & Background

The referral rate is calculated as the number of referrals divided by the total number of appointments per year, it is a critical metric in understanding healthcare dynamics. In this part of analysis, our focus is on comprehending the volume of referrals originating from each sub-ICB (Integrated Care Board) under SNEE (Suffolk and North East Essex) that remain within the area (ESNEFT and WSFT) and those extending beyond its borders.

Data Sources

For this analysis, the primary data sources utilized were NHS England's referrals and appointments datasets. - The referrals dataset is predominantly encompassing data points from April 2023 to March 2024. - The appointments dataset is spanning from March 2022 to August 2024. While FY22 and FY23 were based on complete annual data, the assessment for FY24 is limited to the available data from April to August.

Methodology

Before the analysis, the data was pre-processed.

• Appointments dataframe underwent a cleaning process where 'Unknown' entries under HCP-type were replaced with 'Other practice staff'.
• Extra columns were dropped from both the datasets
• Filtering the datsets to only keep records for SNEE-ICB

The initial step involved grouping the dataset to get the total number of referrals to each SUB-ICB areas between April 2023 and March 2024 namely, Ipswich & East Suffolk (06L), West Suffolk (07K), and North East Essex (06T).

Upon preparing both datasets, the referral rate for each SNEE-ICB area was computed by dividing the referrals dataset by the appointments dataset. The resulting table, included at the conclusion of this document, outlines the referral rates for each SNEE SUB-ICB area concerning GP and Other practice staff.

Insights through Sankey Diagram

Interpretation of the data via a Sankey Diagram revealed noteworthy insights:

• Of the three Sub-ICB's, Ipswich & East Suffolk had the highest volume of referrals.
• Aside from SNEE-ICB, the highest number of referrals by both GPs and Other practice staff were directed towards Cambridgeshire and Peterborough ICB.

Results

The results were set of referrals rates which can be re-created during simulation runs. This is saved to a yaml file which is then easily read by the simulation application using a built in python package.